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DSA vs America First

One Week Out: Democrats Lead the Generic Ballot, but Key Senate Races Are Coin Flips

By AFNS Research Desk · · 1 min read

Bilingual 'Polling Place – Vote Here' sign
Photo: Mrs. Gemstone / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 2.0 (cropped)

The national picture

In the Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democrats lead 53% to 44% on the generic ballot among likely voters. Trump's approval is at 32%, and only 20% of voters approve of him on the cost of living.

Why analysts urge caution

A Reuters analysis warns that only 40 to 50 House seats are truly competitive and that Republicans hold a large cash edge, so a Senate majority is far from certain. Democrats need four more Senate seats and three more House seats. A 50-50 Senate stays Republican because of Vance's tiebreaking vote.

Senate races to watch

  • Texas: Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are tied in Fox News and Rasmussen polling, with more than 4.5 million early votes already cast. Talarico raised $17.6M in the first two weeks of October to Paxton's $2.8M.
  • Georgia: A Quantus poll has Sen. Jon Ossoff ahead of Mike Collins 51.8 to 44.9.
  • New Hampshire: Rasmussen has Chris Pappas leading John Sununu 50 to 44 ahead of Wednesday's WMUR debate.
  • Michigan: A Michigan State/YouGov poll has Abdul El-Sayed leading Mike Rogers 48 to 46.

Money and infighting

Democratic candidates are outraising Republicans, but the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) took out a $15M loan and spent $32M in early October across 10 states. Meanwhile, progressives and establishment Democrats are clashing over whether to fund left-flank candidates like El-Sayed and Florida's Angie Nixon.

Sources

  1. Ipsos: Democrats hold 9-point edge www.ipsos.com
  2. Reuters via Investing.com: Six reasons Democrats may fall short www.investing.com
  3. Al Jazeera: Midterms in maps and charts www.aljazeera.com
  4. USA Today: Texas Senate polls www.usatoday.com
  5. Roll Call: Senate Democrats' fundraising rollcall.com
  6. Election Newsdesk: Georgia poll www.electionnewsdesk.com
  7. Rasmussen: New Hampshire Senate www.rasmussenreports.com
  8. RealClearPolling: Latest polls www.realclearpolling.com
  9. Politico: DSCC loan www.politico.com
  10. Politico: Democratic funding fights www.politico.com

See our sourcing & corrections standards.

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