Iran Turns Up the Pressure on Hormuz as Washington Holds Off Until the Midterms

By AFNS Research Desk · October 27, 2026 · 2 min read

Summary

Attacks on ships in and around the Strait of Hormuz hit a record high in October, after the White House said the US won't strike Iran before the November 3 midterms. Oil prices are back above $110 a barrel. Israel votes today in a close election that could decide whether Benjamin Netanyahu keeps power and how Israel handles Iran from here.

On October 20, the White House said the US "will not be attacking [Iran] at any time prior to the midterm elections" and that its blockade of Iranian ports stays in force.

UKMTO, the UK navy's shipping-security center, logged 12 attacks on merchant ships in the week to October 17, 10 of them in the Strait of Hormuz.

On October 22, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said seven tankers were damaged in one night. Unverified: the claim hasn't been independently verified, and US Central Command disputes the mine claims.

Trump says Iran is making up attacks to push oil prices higher. Brent crude reached about $112–113 a barrel, its highest since May.

An uneasy pause

The war the US and Israel launched against Iran on February 28 is in an uneasy pause, not a settlement. On October 20, Deputy White House press secretary Anna Kelly said the US "will not be attacking [Iran] at any time prior to the midterm elections" and that the US blockade of Iranian ports "will remain in full force and effect."

Pressure on the Strait of Hormuz

Iran has used that window to show it can still choke the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about a fifth of the world's oil before the war. UKMTO counted 12 attacks on merchant ships in the week to October 17 and said most targeted ships "declined to report incidents," so the real number is probably higher.

Unverified claim: On October 22, the Revolutionary Guards said four tankers were hit and three more struck mines, all on the southern route along Oman's coast that the US uses to escort ships. It would be the biggest one-day toll since the war began. The claim has not been independently verified. A US Central Command spokesperson disputed the mine claims, said the shipping lanes had been cleared, and said 95% of ships are still getting through. The Revolutionary Guards warned they could hit US bases in the region if Washington expands its escorts.

Both sides on oil

Trump accused Tehran of "making up fake hits, mines, and everything else" to drive up oil prices before the election. Brent crude still rose to around $112–113 a barrel, its highest since May. Iran's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, says the US must lift pressure and sanctions before any talks.

CBS reports the US has quietly cut back its presence at some Middle East posts because of threats from Iran and the Houthis. The Houthis' latest attack hit King Fahd International Airport in Dammam, Saudi Arabia, killing at least two people. For Egypt's move to back Saudi Arabia against the Houthis, see Gulf envoys meet Iran; Egypt authorizes support for Saudi Arabia.

Israel's vote

Israel votes today in a close election that could decide whether Netanyahu keeps power and how Israel handles Iran from here. Analysts quoted by AP warn that a return to full-scale war with Iran is possible after both elections. Polls and what comes next are in Israel votes in its first election since October 7.

What to watch

Israel's results (official results are due November 4) and coalition talks, the US midterms on November 3, and whether US strikes resume afterward. See also the World Briefing for October 27.