Russia's Offensive Stalls as a Rare Local Truce Begins and Peace Talks Head to Abu Dhabi

The battlefield: ISW's assessment vs. Putin's claims

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the evidence shows Russia's 2026 offensive has run out of steam. ISW assessed a net Russian loss of 80.81 square kilometers in September and about 241 square kilometers from September 1 to October 22. Putin claimed 1,301 square kilometers taken in September.

ISW credits Ukrainian counterattacks, including an operation in the Lyman area that it says retook more than 270 square kilometers. ISW also estimates almost 37,000 Russian casualties so far in October. That figure comes from Ukrainian sources and isn't independently verified.

Ukraine reported 185 clashes on Monday, the heaviest near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka. Ukraine says it struck a Russian plant that makes guidance batteries for glide bombs. Unconfirmed: the damage has not been confirmed.

Strikes on Kyiv

Russia has kept up its long-range strikes. On the night of October 21–22, right after Putin met Witkoff in St. Petersburg, Russia launched ballistic and cruise missiles and about 210 drones, mostly at Kyiv. President Zelensky said the attack hit 12 regions, killing at least two people and injuring 34.

Talks head to Abu Dhabi

Putin agreed in principle to restart three-way talks with Washington and Kyiv. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said they're planned for Abu Dhabi in the first half of November and didn't rule out European participation. As a goodwill gesture, Russia freed Stephen Hubbard, a 74-year-old American teacher.

The central dispute hasn't moved. Russia still demands land it hasn't captured, and Moscow says it won't slow its offensive. Zelensky rules out limits on Ukraine's army and forced neutrality, and calls freezing the current front line the "minimum" for ending the war. The leaders of Finland and Norway called Putin today to push for talks.

The Oleshky truce

In a rare instance of the two sides cooperating, a ceasefire limited to Oleshky, a Russian-occupied town across the Dnipro River from Kherson, began at 3 a.m. local time on October 27 so aid can get in and civilians can leave. The White House says Melania Trump brokered it, and the Vatican says Pope Leo urged both sides to let aid in. The truce is holding.

Only a few thousand people are left in a town that had 24,000 before the war, and they face severe shortages of food and medicine. No end date has been set, and the Kremlin says the truce could set a precedent for other local ceasefires.

What to watch

Whether the Oleshky evacuation goes ahead safely, the Abu Dhabi talks, and the usual wave of Russian strikes around negotiating rounds. See also the World Briefing for October 27.