Report: Western Intelligence Estimate Says Iran Still Builds About 50 Ballistic Missiles a Month

Status: Bloomberg, in a report carried Tuesday by Iran International, Al Arabiya, and Ynet, cited a Western intelligence estimate of Iran's ballistic-missile production and remaining stockpile. The figures are an estimate, not an independently verified inventory.

According to that estimate, Iran can still build about 50 ballistic missiles a month, roughly half its prewar rate, despite months of U.S. and Israeli strikes on its military infrastructure. A Western official familiar with military intelligence reports said Iran most likely has at least 1,700 ballistic missiles remaining, Iran International and Al Arabiya reported, citing Bloomberg.

Al Arabiya, summarizing the Bloomberg report, said the United States has argued since early in the war that Tehran's arsenal, and its ability to reconstitute it, had been thoroughly degraded. The missile-production estimate is not the same metric as damage to nuclear facilities. At a Pentagon briefing on Tuesday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the United States had achieved a "historic military victory" and stated, "Their defense industrial base gone. More than 80% of their nuclear industrial base gone," the Associated Press reported. Defense News also reported that Hegseth claimed more than 80 percent of Iran's nuclear industrial base had been destroyed.

The Bloomberg coverage, as relayed by Iran International and Al Arabiya, also said Iran may retain thousands of Shahed-type strike weapons, while noting that the exact size of the missile and drone stockpiles remains uncertain. Jim Lamson, a former CIA analyst and visiting research fellow at King's College London who was quoted in that coverage, said publicly available estimates of the current stockpile are "all over the map," in part because Iran's prewar inventory was never firmly established and the number of missiles built since the war began is unknown.

Ynet, also citing Bloomberg, reported the 50-a-month figure and the comparison to roughly half of prewar production. AFNS has not independently verified the intelligence estimate.