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Trump Administration Status: Preliminary; counts unverifiable

DOJ Preliminary Data: Serious Violent Crime Down 25% in 2025; Trump's Raw Counts Can't Be Checked Against It

By AFNS Research Desk · · 1 min read

U.S. Department of Justice Building in Washington
Photo: Tony Webster / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 2.0 (cropped)

Status: Preliminary data. Trump's raw counts: unverifiable against DOJ's release.

What the data shows

The Justice Department's preliminary 2025 numbers, from the National Crime Victimization Survey, show:

  • Serious violent crime down 25%
  • Property crime down 19%

These figures are preliminary.

Checking the President's numbers

President Trump has cited raw counts such as "100,000 fewer rapes" and "700,000 fewer violent crimes" (clip). These can't be checked against DOJ's release, which gives percentage drops in rates rather than raw counts.

An earlier AFNS check against the Bureau of Justice Statistics' preliminary victimization estimates found the "700K fewer violent crimes" figure mostly backed by the data, but preliminary.

Sources

  1. DOJ release: National Crime Victimization Survey www.justice.gov
  2. BJS: Preliminary victimization estimates, NCVS 2025 bjs.ojp.gov
  3. Clip: Trump on crime (@RapidResponse47) x.com

See our sourcing & corrections standards.

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